publications | David Karpa

Books and book chapters

Totale Überwachung: Warum wir uns freiwillig vom Staat die Freiheit rauben lassen

David Karpa and Michael Rochlitz

Nov 2026

Forthcoming, 25 November 2026

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Digitale Technologien haben die Vision von George Orwells „1984" zur realen Möglichkeit gemacht. KI, Gesichtserkennung und Big Data erlauben eine Kontrolle über Individuen, die noch vor wenigen Jahren undenkbar war. China hat diese Technologien zum Überwachungsstaat ausgebaut und exportiert sie entlang der digitalen Seidenstraße in dutzende Länder. In den USA ist nach dem 11. September 2001 eine Allianz aus Staat und Tech-Konzernen entstanden, die unter der Regierung Trump zur Abschiebungsmaschinerie wurde. Auch in Deutschland setzt die Polizei bereits Software des US-Unternehmens Palantir ein. Dr. David Karpa und Prof. Michael Rochlitz zeigen, wie Überwachungstechnologie unsere Freiheit bedroht und unter welchen Bedingungen Bürger auch in Deutschland bereit sind, staatliche Überwachung zu akzeptieren.
@book{karpa2026totale, title = {Totale {\"U}berwachung: Warum wir uns freiwillig vom Staat die Freiheit rauben lassen}, author = {Karpa, David and Rochlitz, Michael}, year = {2026}, month = nov, publisher = {Heyne}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, isbn = {978-3-453-21935-9}, pages = {256}, language = {German}, url = {https://www.penguin.de/buecher/karpa-rochlitz-totale-ueberwachung/paperback/9783453219359}, note = {Forthcoming, 25 November 2026}, category = {book}, }
Artificial intelligence, surveillance, and big data

David Karpa, Torben Klarl, and Michael Rochlitz

In Diginomics Research Perspectives: The Role of Digitalization in Business and Society, Nov 2022

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The most important resource to improve technologies in the field of artificial intelligence is data. Two types of policies are crucial in this respect: privacy and data-sharing regulations, and the use of surveillance technologies for policing. Both types of policies vary substantially across countries and political regimes. This chapter examines how authoritarian and democratic political institutions can influence the quality of research in artificial intelligence, and the availability of large-scale datasets to improve and train deep learning algorithms. We focus mainly on the case of China, and find that—ceteris paribus—authoritarian political institutions continue to have a negative effect on innovation. They can, however, have a positive effect on research in deep learning, via the availability of large-scale datasets that have been obtained through government surveillance. We propose a research agenda to study which of the two effects might dominate in a race for leadership in artificial intelligence between countries with different political institutions, such as the USA and China.
@incollection{karpa2022artificial, title = {Artificial intelligence, surveillance, and big data}, author = {Karpa, David and Klarl, Torben and Rochlitz, Michael}, booktitle = {Diginomics Research Perspectives: The Role of Digitalization in Business and Society}, pages = {145--172}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Springer}, category = {book}, }

Journal articles

Digital Surveillance and Self-Censorship in Autocracies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Kazakhstan

David Karpa

Political Behavior, 2026

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Digital surveillance technologies are increasingly employed, especially in authoritarian regimes seeking to monitor and shape online communication. Yet we have little empirical evidence about how such surveillance affects citizens’ expression of political views. Theory suggests that awareness of being surveilled induces self-censorship, discouraging individuals from voicing opinions on sensitive topics. This paper tests this proposition using a survey experiment conducted in Kazakhstan in November 2023 (N = 5,025). Participants were randomly exposed to a reminder of government surveillance, an assurance of privacy, or a control condition before answering sensitive and non-sensitive questions. Exposure to the surveillance reminder reduced responses to sensitive items by about three percentage points, while the privacy assurance had no effect. The effect is strongest among respondents who consume foreign media, suggesting that politically informed individuals are more responsive to surveillance cues. These findings provide experimental evidence that perceived surveillance discourages political expression and reinforces authoritarian stability.
@article{karpa2026selfcensorship, title = {Digital Surveillance and Self-Censorship in Autocracies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Kazakhstan}, author = {Karpa, David}, journal = {Political Behavior}, year = {2026}, category = {journal}, }
Authority endorsements backfire and social norms fail to increase vaccination intent in post-COVID Kazakhstan

David Karpa, Dinara Pisareva, Bermond Scoggins, and 2 more authors

SSM - Population Health, 2026

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Prestige bias and social norms messaging are among the most widely recommended vaccination communication strategies, yet they have been validated almost exclusively in high-trust, Western settings. Whether these strategies transfer to contexts where institutional trust is structurally low remains largely untested. We address this gap using a factorial survey experiment (n=1420 parents) in Kazakhstan – a post-Soviet setting where institutional trust is characterized by Soviet legacies and post-pandemic coercion – that varied messenger endorsement (Grand Mufti, President, Chief Sanitary Doctor, control) and social norm framing (Muslim, national, local, control), supplemented by qualitative analysis of 829 open-ended responses. All three endorsements reduced vaccination intent by 6–7 percentage points relative to the 76% control baseline, while norm messaging showed null effects overall. Non-Muslims drove the backfire (11–12 percentage point decline); Muslims were insulated. Urban residents responded positively to norms; rural residents did not. Qualitative analysis traced hesitancy to pragmatic safety and efficacy concerns – only two respondents cited religion – indicating the endorsement strategy targeted barriers that did not drive hesitancy in this population. These findings identify trust-dependent boundary conditions for prestige bias theory in health communication: when institutional trust is low and recent coercion has primed reactance, endorsements from prestigious figures trigger resistance rather than deference. The contrast with positive endorsement effects during the pandemic in the same country suggests that effectiveness depends on timing and whether attitudes are still forming. Where institutions have lost credibility, leveraging institutional authority is not just ineffective but counterproductive.
@article{karpa2026vaccination, title = {Authority endorsements backfire and social norms fail to increase vaccination intent in post-COVID Kazakhstan}, author = {Karpa, David and Pisareva, Dinara and Scoggins, Bermond and Durnev, Nikita and Rochlitz, Michael}, journal = {SSM - Population Health}, volume = {35}, pages = {101935}, year = {2026}, issn = {2352-8273}, doi = {10.1016/j.ssmph.2026.101935}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352827326000376}, publisher = {Elsevier}, category = {journal}, keywords = {Vaccination communication, Social learning theory, Prestige bias, Social norms, Kazakhstan, Survey experiment}, }
Authoritarian surveillance and public support for digital governance solutions

David Karpa and Michael Rochlitz

Comparative Political Studies, 2025

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This study investigates factors influencing support for digital governance solutions and compares this support between autocracies and democracies. We conduct survey experiments in Russia, Germany, Turkey, the United States, and Estonia, and find that awareness of potential misuse of digital governance tools by the government reduces support. Importantly, while this effect has previously been documented for China, we find it irrespective of regime type for an autocracy, a hybrid regime and three democracies. Individuals relying on government-controlled information sources are more likely to endorse digital governance tools. Our study challenges prior findings by indicating that gaps in public service quality do not boost support. Instead, satisfaction with government services correlates with trust in the government’s capacity to implement digital governance solutions.
@article{karpa2025authoritarian, title = {Authoritarian surveillance and public support for digital governance solutions}, author = {Karpa, David and Rochlitz, Michael}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {58}, number = {10}, pages = {2237--2265}, year = {2025}, publisher = {SAGE Publications}, category = {journal}, }

A transparency checklist for carbon footprint calculations applied within a systematic review of virtual care interventions

Oliver Lange, Julian Plath, Timo F. Dziggel, and 4 more authors

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022

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@article{lange2022transparency,
  title = {A transparency checklist for carbon footprint calculations applied within a systematic review of virtual care interventions},
  author = {Lange, Oliver and Plath, Julian and Dziggel, Timo F. and Karpa, David and Keil, Mattis and Becker, Tom and Rogowski, Wolf H.},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
  volume = {19},
  number = {12},
  pages = {7474},
  year = {2022},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  category = {journal},
}

Working papers

Speaking the Aggressor’s Language: Identity and Sanctions Evasion

Andrey Tkachenko, David Karpa, Michael Rochlitz, and 2 more authors

2026

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5604802

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Export controls work only if third countries decline to circumvent them. We study how language, as part of identity, affects sanctions circumvention in a bystander state in the Russia-Ukraine war. In a difference-in-differences framework for Kazakhstan’s trade, re-exports of sanctioned goods rose far more where Russian was widely spoken among ethnic Kazakhs before 2022. A pre-registered survey experiment identifies the mechanism at the individual level: respondents randomly addressed in Russian on the introductory page are more likely to justify the invasion and help Russia evade sanctions, although the cue leaves their information and incentives unchanged, and the effect is specific to Russia-related attitudes. Finally, we show that the Russian language polarized attitudes toward Russia after the invasion and increased online searches for pro-Kremlin news, exposing the boundary that Kazakhstan’s nation-building has yet to close.
@article{tkachenko2025language, title = {Speaking the Aggressor's Language: Identity and Sanctions Evasion}, author = {Tkachenko, Andrey and Karpa, David and Rochlitz, Michael and Tatkeyeva, Meruyert and Sagyndykova, Galiya}, year = {2026}, journal = {Working Paper}, type = {Working Paper}, category = {working_paper}, url = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=5604802}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.5604802}, keywords = {Export Sanctions, Language, Sanctions Evasion, Kazakhstan, Russia-Ukraine War}, language = {English}, note = {Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5604802}, }

Authoritarian Surveillance, Innovation and Growth

Torben Klarl, David Karpa, Matheus Eduardo Leusin, and 1 more author

2023

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4594849

DOI Bib PDF

@article{klarl2023authoritarian,
  title = {Authoritarian Surveillance, Innovation and Growth},
  author = {Klarl, Torben and Karpa, David and Leusin, Matheus Eduardo and Rochlitz, Michael},
  journal = {Working Paper},
  year = {2023},
  type = {Working Paper},
  category = {working_paper},
  url = {https://ssrn.com/abstract=4594849},
  doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4594849},
  note = {Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4594849},
}

Selected work in progress

“Sorry, None of Our Business: Economic Grievance, Zero-Sum Thinking, and Support for Defending Ukraine” (with Lasha Chargaziia and Michael Rochlitz)
“Deprivation, Public Discontent and Support for Authoritarian Policies” (with Michael Rochlitz) [slides]
“‘I Am Not an Activist’: The Digital Authoritarian Bargain in Kazakhstan” (with Michael Rochlitz) [slides]
“Public Opinion in Wartime Russia: Internet Restrictions, Repression, and Support for the War” (with Andrey Tkachenko, Lasha Chargaziia and Timothy M. Frye)
“Legitimacy of Electronic Travel Authorisation in the United Kingdom” (with Daria Gritsenko)
“How Ends Motivate Means: Unpacking How Motivated Reasoning Shapes Legitimacy Judgments of Automated Travel Authorisation Systems” (with Daria Gritsenko)
“Eye-Tracking Conjoint Experiments: Attention, Attribute Non-Attendance, and Decision Rules” (with Süleyman Özdel, Daria Gritsenko and Enkelejda Kasneci)