Projects
- How do authoritarian regimes maintain their hegemony over public opinion beyond state-run media and outright repression of journalists? Theory and previous research suggest that surveillance practices discourage citizens from engaging in legitimate digital communication behaviors, such as expressing opinions online. Drawing on an original survey experiment conducted in Kazakhstan in November 2023 (N=5,025), this study is able to show that citizens exposed to a text-based surveillance treatment reduce their response rate to sensitive questions by an average 3.3% while this effect is not triggered for non-sensitive questions. Moreover, the measured self-censorship can be traced back to an informed elite that has access to a more diverse international media environment. This study contributes to the literature on digital authoritarianism by showing how state surveillance practices undermine political discourse which in turn contributes to authoritarian stability.
- Working paper.
- With Andrey Tkachenko, Michael Rochlitz, Meruyert Tatkeyeva, and Galiya Sagyndykova
- Does language affinity facilitate the export of propaganda by authoritarian regimes? And what are the economic consequences of authoritarian propaganda abroad? We study these questions in the context of Kazakhstan with the help of multiple survey waves, online search statistics, our own original survey, and international trade data. We identify a shift towards pro-Russian opinions among the Russian-speaking population of Kazakhstan after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even among ethnically non-Russian citizens. We relate this shift of opinion to a substantial increase in consumption of pro-Kremlin internet news and Russian social media content after February 2022. Using our own survey, we show that consumption of Russian propaganda increases the justification for circumvention of sanctions against Russia. Finally, using detailed trade data, we document that re-exports of sanctioned products to Russia increased disproportionately after February 2022 from regions where the population is more likely to be exposed to Russian propaganda. Our results shed light on mechanisms by which former colonial powers can continue to influence beliefs and economic behavior in their former colonies.
- Working paper.
Authoritarian Surveillance, Innovation and Growth
- With Torben Klarl, Michael Rochlitz and Matheus Eduardo Leusin
- We find that while the average effect of authoritarian institutions on innovation remains negative, in fields such as artificial intelligence, where large amounts of data are important, autocracies - under certain circumstances - can outperform competitive democracies.
- Working paper.
